Chinese Macro-Economy in the Process of Bottoming-Out and Rebounding

Chinese economy continued slowing down in 2015, and the growth will be moderating in 2016. In the shadow of the global business cycle and China’s real estate cycle, Chinese economy will face severe headwinds in 2016. Meanwhile, a lot of new industries and new growth engines have been fostered in Chinese economy, making it a mixture of stagnancy and flourishing. The basis of next round rapid growth is being built in the process of deepening adjustment. In the face of two main kinds of economic risks in 2016, high attention must be paid to the following issues: the reshaping of the incentive system. The recovery of the real estate market, the evolvement of the world economy, and the re-orientation of the macro economic policy. The bottom of Chinese economy is expected to appear in the second half in 2016, and steadily rebound in late 2017. Returning to the rapid growth track.

• 1. General Comments and Forecast
• 1.1. Review of the economic performance in 2015
• 1.2. Prospect of economic growth in 2016
• 1.3. Macro-economic index forecast for 2015-2016
• 2. 2015, the year unveiling the crucial stage of the new normal state
• 2.1. Constant downturn of economic growth
• 2.2. Overall Emergence of Deflation
• 2.3. Persistent Downturn of Business Climate Index
• 2.4. Deep Differentiation of the Economic Structure
• 2.5. The Bust of Stock Market Bubble
• 2.6. Ineffective macro-economic control policy
• 3. 2016 in the process of heading for bottom
• 3.1. The basic logic and forecast for the economic bottom
• 3.2. Two kinds of risks China will be confronted with in 2016
• 3.3. Four key issues in 2016
• 4. Major Conclusions and Policy Suggestions
• 4.1. Review and Outlook
• 4.2. Reorientation of Macroeconomic Policy